Breaking down goal difference into its component parts shows how expected goals from shot creation – the chance of scoring for each shot, estimated from historical data – can be the foundation for a model of the game. Dan explains how this model can be used to rate both attacking and defending, then considers the judgment calls implicit in using this kind of model to evaluate players.
Intro: "Crackle & Pop" by Digital Primitives
Outro: "No Holiday" by Digital Primitives