There's an infinite number of mathematical models that might explain the game of football/soccer, but how can we strike a balance between usefulness and simplicity? Dan considers the advantages and drawbacks of models using goals, and shots, then begins to explain how expected goals – a measure of shots' chances of scoring – might capture information for rating teams and players.
Intro: "Crackle & Pop" by Digital Primitives
Outro: "No Holiday" by Digital Primitives